New Scandal for Ishiba Means New Lows for His Ratings in March

Plumbing New Lows

The monthly surveys of public opinion on the administration of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru have come out from eight major Japanese media organizations for March 2025. They show a dismal outlook for Ishiba and his government, with the highest approval rating coming from NHK, at just 36%—down 8 points from February. In the previous month the prime minister saw a slight bounce in his numbers, with four of the surveys placing his support above the 40% mark; this month there were zero rating him at that level, and fully half of them put his approval rating as low as the 20% range. The Mainichi Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun, and Kyōdō News polls have his latest numbers down in the range seen by Kishida Fumio, his predecessor, toward the troubled end of his administration in August 2024, effectively erasing the last traces of the rebound Ishiba enjoyed at the launch of his own government in October.

In seven of the eight surveys Ishiba’s support dipped to its lowest level ever, with the greatest month-on-month drop coming in the Asahi poll (down 14 points). Approval ratings also fell by 13.9 points in the Sankei Shimbun poll and 12 points in the Kyōdō poll.

Disapproval numbers, meanwhile, climbed across the board, reaching their highest level ever in all eight surveys. The highest here was from Mainichi (64%), up 10 points from February, and the lowest—still an uncomfortably high 44.1%, up 4 points—from Jiji Press.

Coupon Scandal a Key Concern

Among the surveys asking for respondent input, the top reason given for Ishiba’s low numbers was the prime minister’s distribution of gift coupons worth ¥100,000 to 15 members of his Liberal Democratic Party in the House of Representatives. This fresh scandal, which came to light in mid-March, was named by fully 70% of respondents to the Yomiuri Shimbun, Asahi, Mainichi, and Kyōdō polls. The Sankei Shimbun and Nikkei surveys asked respondents their views on Ishiba’s claim that handing out the coupons did not constitute an illegal act, finding some 70% unwilling to accept this explanation.

The Jiji opinion surveys, based on direct interviews with respondents, has never found 30% or more approving of Ishiba’s performance since he took office. The disapproval rating, on the other hand, has remained roughly steady or climbed throughout the months of his administration.

(Translated from Japanese. Banner photo: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru speaks to reporters about his distribution of gift coupons to LDP members. Taken at the Kantei in Tokyo on March 14, 2025. © Jiji.)