One in Five Japanese Municipalities Predicted to Have No Clinics by 2040

On the assumption that a doctor will retire at 75, out of Japan’s total 1,896 municipalities, the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare estimated that in 2040 there will be 342, or 18%, with no clinics. If doctors were to retire at 80, that would still mean 244 municipalities without. The MHLW calculated these estimates based on statistics related to doctors, dentists, and medical facilities, and an assumption that there would be no successors.

Many clinics are often run by a single doctor. When calculating the number, if a municipality did have a clinic, but no doctors had it registered as their main place of work, it was not counted. As of 2022, 77 municipalities had no clinics.

Many of the municipalities at risk of losing clinics are in underpopulated areas. Based on 75 being the retirement age for doctors, it was calculated that by 2040, there would be 265 more added to the actual 77 municipalities with no clinics as of 2022, leading to an estimated 342 municipalities without clinics. By population size, 109 of those municipalities have less than 5,000 residents, accounting for 40% of the total.

According to the ministry, 53% of doctors at clinics in 2022 were in their sixties or older, a clear indication of how Japan’s society is continuing to gray.

(Translated from Japanese. Banner photo © Pixta.)