Some Wind in Ishiba’s Sails? Slight Upticks in Support Ratings for February

A Slight Bump, but Still Muted Figures

With the results in the February political public opinion polls run by all of Japan’s major media organizations, Ishiba Shigeru has seen a slight climb in the percentages of respondents in support of his administration. As in January, the highest rating for the prime minister among the eight surveys came from the Sankei Shimbun, which found 44.3% in support of his administration, up 0.8 points month on month. On the low end, the Jiji Press survey saw him mark a modest 0.3-point rise to reach only 28.5% support.

Jiji’s poll was the only one to rate Ishiba below 30%, though, and four of the eight polls placed him at or above 40%—including both Asahi Shimbun, in whose survey he saw a 7-point leap to 40%, and Nikkei, whose same 40% support rating was largely unchanged from the previous month. 

In the disapproval column, meanwhile, Ishiba’s numbers crept up in three surveys and fell in five. The highest negative rating came from Mainichi Shimbun (54%, up 1 point) and the lowest from NHK, where respondents turned in a disapproval rating of 35%, down 5 points from January.

In all, the trend appeared positive for the Ishiba administration, but with the exception of the NHK survey, where approving responses outweight disapproving ones by nearly 10 points, all polls pointed to a muted trend toward improvement.

The approval rating in the Jiji Press poll has hovered at around 28% for five months running, ever since Ishiba launched his government in October 2024, while the disapproval numbers have remained above the 40% mark for three straight months starting in December.

Thumbs Up for the Trump Summit?

On February 7 Ishiba met with US President Donald Trump for the first time since the latter took office. The leaders discussed issues including cooperation in economic and security areas. In the Kyōdō, Yomiuri Shimbun, Asahi, Nikkei, and Sankei polls, around of half of respondents pointed to these talks as a positive factor for Ishiba. The Mainichi survey, meanwhile, found just around 30% of respondents highly evaluating the summit. In reporting on its survey results, Asahi noted a marked connection between takes on the summit and support for Ishiba: “Among respondents viewing the summit positively, 61% were in support of the cabinet.”

The minority Ishiba-led government has been in discussions with various opposition parties to cobble together a budget for fiscal 2025, beginning in April. On February 25, the Liberal Democratic Party and junior coalition partner Kōmeitō secured support for a budget proposal from Nippon Ishin no Kai by agreeing to its requests for the inclusion of measures like making high-school education free. This is the first time in nearly three decades for a budget to be produced through deliberations between the ruling and opposition blocs.

Ishiba still faces a number of thorny issues moving into March, though, including the high price of rice, Japan’s major staple food, and the threat of steep US tariffs applied to Japanese exports. He may continue to find it tough to boost his approval ratings in a meaningful way.

(Originally published in Japanese on February 28, 2025. Banner photo: Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, right, with US President Donald Trump at the two leaders’ first summit meeting, held at the White House on February 7, 2025. © Jiji.)