First Polls for Ishiba: New Prime Minister Clears His Predecessor’s Low Marks
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A Jump from the Kishida Days
Japan’s major media organizations carried out public opinion polls in the days following Ishiba Shigeru’s launch of his new administration as Japan’s latest prime minister. On the whole he appeared to post midrange numbers, with a high of 53.3% in the Sankei Shimbun poll and a low of 46% in the Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun poll; he cleared the 50% mark in four of the six surveys detailed below.
Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Ishiba’s predecessor in the office (2021–24), ended his term below the 30% mark in each of the media organizations’ polls. Ishiba more than doubled Kishida’s closing support rate in three of the polls, those carried out by Yomiuri Shimbun, Asahi, and Sankei. The table below compares Ishiba’s ratings with those of Kishida at the end and start of his term in office, along with the beginning support rates for the two previous prime ministers, Suga Yoshihide (2020–21) and Abe Shinzō (2012–20).
Prime Minister Support Ratings
| Ishiba (10/24) | Kishida (9/24) | Kishida (10/21) | Suga (9/20) | Abe (12/12) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yomiuri Shimbun | 51% | 25% | 56% | 74% | 65% |
| Asahi Shimbun | 46% | 23% | 45% | 65% | 59% |
| Kyōdō News | 50.7% | 26.1% | 55.7% | 66.4% | 62.0% |
| Nikkei | 51% | 27% | 59% | 74% | 62% |
| Mainichi Shimbun | 46% | 29% | 49% | 64% | 52% |
| Sankei Shimbun | 53.3% | 25.7% | 63.2% | — | 55.0% |
Notes: For surveys on Ishiba administration, Mainichi used an online format for smartphone users; other companies used randomized calls to mobile and fixed numbers. Methodologies may differ between the October 2024 survey and previous surveys; question formats differ among the implementing firms.
On August 14, when Kishida announced he would leave the posts of prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party, he noted the need to display to the Japanese people that the LDP had changed: “The clearest first step to take is for me to step down.” The numbers in this latest round of polls indicate that his move had the desired effect, with the party’s selection of a new leader producing higher support ratings for a LDP prime minister.
Better, But Not Good
Ishiba’s numbers are not necessarily rosy, though. The table above, showing all the support ratings for new LDP administrations since 2012, when the party first partnered with its Kōmeitō junior coalition partner, makes it clear that Ishiba begins his term at the lowest level of popularity (with the exception of the Asahi poll) in a dozen years. Nikkei coverage of its survey results noted that his numbers were the lowest ever since 2002, when comparable figures were first made available, while Asahi stated that Ishiba had hit the ground running with the second-lowest level of initial support since 2001, when it introduced its current survey method, behind only Kishida.
Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, at front center, with members of his new cabinet on October 1, 2024, at the Kantei in Tokyo. (© Jiji)
On October 9, Prime Minister Ishiba formally dissolved the Diet, calling a general election for October 27. With the LDP’s money scandals remaining a primary debate topic, he has a busy schedule ahead of him as he seeks to restore public trust in his party and politics as a whole.
(Originally published in Japanese. Banner photo: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru smiles during his inaugural address to the Diet on October 4, 2024. © Jiji.)