Ishiba’s LDP Coalition Loses Majority in Japan Election: Political Uncertainty Ahead

The Liberal Democratic Party and Kōmeitō coalition tumbled from a joint total of 288 seats to 215 in Japan’s 2024 House of Representatives election, below the 233 required for a majority. In the October 27 contest, the LDP finished with 191 seats and Kōmeitō with 24. Among the opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan won 148 seats, Nippon Ishin no Kai 38, the Democratic Party for the People 28, Reiwa Shinsengumi 9, the Japanese Communist Party 8, the Social Democratic Party 1, Sanseitō 3, and the Conservative Party of Japan 3. Independents took 12 seats.

The LDP kickbacks scandal meant that the role of money in politics was a talking point in the run-up to the election. On October 23, the JCP newspaper Shimbun Akahata reported that the LDP had made payments of ¥20 million each to party branches with scandal-tainted candidates, from whom it had withdrawn official support. The LDP said that the money was for building local strength rather than to help the candidates, but the news highlighted how the party was unable to put a lid on the scandal, affecting the closing stages of the election campaign.

The JCP did not benefit itself, losing 2 seats, but the CDPJ made major gains, from 98 seats before the election to 148 afterward. The DPFP was also among the opposition parties that took advantage, quadrupling its strength from 7 to 28 seats.

With no majority, the LDP must either expand its coalition or rule with a minority government to continue. Alternatively, opposition parties may seek to form a coalition, but they face considerable policy differences that may diminish their cohesiveness against the LDP/Kōmeitō bloc. Meanwhile. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and other senior LDP figures may be called on to take responsibility for the election result and resign their positions.

The turnout is estimated to be around 53%, which is less than the 55.93% in 2021, but slightly higher than the postwar low of 52.66% in 2014. A record 73 female candidates were elected.

(Originally published in Japanese. Banner photo: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru at LDP headquarters in Chiyoda, Tokyo, talks to journalists as the results roll in on October 27, 2024. © Jiji.)