Japan’s Next Prime Minister: LDP Election a Crowded Field

Following Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s withdrawal from the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election to be held on September 27, a crowded field of likely candidates has emerged to replace him as party leader. Whoever succeeds will automatically assume the premiership, as head of the senior party in the ruling coalition. Here we list 11 potential election candidates, who will first have to secure the backing of 20 LDP Diet members in order to run.

Potential Candidates (Listed in Alphabetical Order)

Hayashi Yoshimasa

• Current position: Chief cabinet secretary
• Date of birth (age): January 19, 1961 (63)
• Career before entering national politics: Mitsui & Co.; policy secretary to his father, House of Representatives lawmaker Hayashi Yoshirō
• Constituency (number of times elected): Yamaguchi 3 (1) (House of Representatives); previously Yamaguchi (5) (House of Councillors)
• Party alignment: Was a member of the Kishida faction
• Important experience: Foreign minister; Minister of education, culture, sports, science, and technology; Minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
• Other notes: Finished last out of the five candidates in the September 2012 LDP presidential election.

Ishiba Shigeru

• Current position: Member, House of Representatives
• Date of birth (age): February 4, 1957 (67)
• Career before entering national politics: Mitsui Bank
• Constituency (number of times elected): Tottori 1 (12)
• Party alignment: Dissolved his Ishiba faction in 2021, making it into an informal group
• Important experience: Chair of LDP Policy Research Council; LDP secretary-general; Minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
• Other notes: Previously ran in four LDP leadership contests in 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020. Endorsed Kōno Tarō in 2021. Regularly heads public opinion polls on favored next prime minister.

Kamikawa Yōko

• Current position: Foreign minister
• Date of birth (age): March 1, 1953 (71)
• Career before entering national politics: Mitsubishi Research Institute; Policy planning assistant to US Senator Max Baucus
• Constituency (number of times elected): Shizuoka 1 (7)
• Party alignment: Was a member of the Kishida faction
• Important experience: Minister of justice; Minister of state for gender equality and social affairs; Minister of state for measures for declining birthrate
• Other notes: Strong reputation for practical competence.

Katō Katsunobu

• Current position: Chair of LDP Research Commission on Social Security System
• Date of birth (age): November 22, 1955 (68)
• Career before entering national politics: Ministry of Finance; Secretary to his father-in-law, House of Representatives lawmaker Katō Mutsuki
• Constituency (number of times elected): Okayama 5 (7)
• Party alignment: Was a member of the Motegi (Toshimitsu) faction.
• Important experience: Chief cabinet secretary; Chair of LDP General Council; Minister of health, labor, and welfare
• Other notes: His father-in-law Katō Mutsuki served in positions including minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.

Kobayashi Takayuki (formally declared candidacy on August 19)

• Current position: Vice-chair of LDP Party Organization and Campaign Headquarters
• Date of birth (age): November 29, 1974 (49)
• Career before entering national politics: Ministry of Finance
• Constituency (number of times elected): Chiba 2 (4)
• Party alignment: Was a member of the Nikai (Toshihiro) faction
• Important experience: Minister for economic security
• Other notes: Fukuda Tatsuo and other lawmakers, mainly those first elected in 2012, have gathered support for Kobayashi as a fresh face to show the LDP turning over a new leaf after its slush fund scandal. In the 2021 party presidential election, he endorsed Takaichi Sanae.

Koizumi Shinjirō

• Current position: Chair of the House of Representatives Committee on National Security
• Date of birth (age): April 14, 1981 (43)
• Career before entering national politics: Researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank; Secretary to his father, Prime Minister Koizumi Jun’ichirō
• Constituency (number of times elected): Kanagawa 11 (5)
• Party alignment: None
• Important experience: Minister of the environment; Director of LDP Agriculture and Forestry Division; Director of LDP Youth Division
• Other notes: Backed by those in the LDP seeking generational change. In the 2021 contest, he endorsed Kōno Tarō.

Kōno Tarō

• Current position: Digital minister; Minister in charge of civil service reform; Minister of state for regulatory reform
• Date of birth (age): January 10, 1963 (61)
• Career before entering national politics: Fuji Xerox; Nippon Tanshi
• Constituency (number of times elected): Kanagawa 15 (9)
• Party alignment: Member of the Asō (Tarō) faction
• Important experience: Defense minister; Foreign minister; Minister in charge of administrative reform
• Other notes: In the 2009 LDP presidential election, the month after the party lost power in a general election, he stood as a candidate for generational change, but finished in second place behind Tanigaki Sadakazu. Despite the support of Koizumi Shinjirō and Ishiba Shigeru in the 2021 election, he finished second again, behind Kishida.

Motegi Toshimitsu

• Current position: LDP secretary general
• Date of birth (age): October 7, 1955 (68)
• Career before entering national politics: Marubeni; Political journalist for Yomiuri Shimbun; Management consultant at McKinsey & Company
• Constituency (number of times elected): Tochigi 5 (10)
• Party alignment: Was a member of the Motegi faction
• Important experience: Foreign minister; Chair of LDP Policy Research Council; Minister of economy, trade, and industry
• Other notes: Has strong practical competence and has held major positions in both the cabinet and the party organization.

Noda Seiko

• Current position: Member, House of Representatives
• Date of birth (age): September 3, 1960 (63)
• Career before entering national politics: Imperial Hotel; Gifu Prefectural Assembly
• Constituency (number of times elected): Gifu 1 (10)
• Party alignment: None
• Important experience: Chair of the House of Representatives budget committee; Minister for international affairs and communications; Chair of the LDP General Council
• Other notes: Finished fourth of four candidates in the 2021 leadership election, despite the support of party bigwig Nikai Toshihiro.

Saitō Ken

• Current position: Minister of economy, trade, and industry
• Date of birth (age): June 14, 1959 (65)
• Career before entering national politics: Ministry of international trade and industry
• Constituency (number of times elected): Chiba 7 (5)
• Party alignment: Was a member of the Ishiba faction
• Important experience: Minister of justice; Minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
• Other notes: Has a bureaucratical background and a reputation for practical skills. After the Ishiba faction dissolved in 2021, he did not participate in its successor group.

Takaichi Sanae

• Current position: Minister for economic security
• Date of birth (age): March 7, 1961 (63)
• Career before entering national politics: Graduated from the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management
• Constituency (number of times elected): Nara 2 (9)
• Party alignment: None
• Important experience: Chair of LDP Policy Research Council; Minister for international affairs and communications; Minister of state for the social security and tax number system
• Other notes: With the backing of Abe Shinzō, she finished third in the 2021 LDP leadership contest. In the first round, she won more votes than eventual runner-up Kōno Tarō among Diet members, but was eliminated due to his superior support among party members. Has not been part of a faction since 2011, so may find it difficult to secure the required support of 20 Diet members.

(Translated from Japanese. Banner photos: Top row from left: Ishiba Shigeru, Kobayashi Takayuki, Saitō Ken, Kamikawa Yōko; center row from left: Katō Katsunobu, Takaichi Sanae, Hayashi Yoshimasa, Kōno Tarō; bottom row from left: Motegi Toshimitsu, Koizumi Shinjirō, Noda Seiko. All © Jiji.)