Election Upheaval: Social-Media Savvy Politicians Reap Rewards in Japan

Sea Change

This year may one day be seen as the first in which Japanese elections were significantly shaped by online activity. Certainly, 2024 has been a major turning point in electoral history.

Restrictions on online campaigning were lifted in 2013. Since then, politicians have been able to update their websites during campaigning periods—something not previously allowed—and to call for votes via social media, so it would not be unreasonable to suggest 2013 as the starting point for internet influence.

However, it took time for the internet to have a substantial effect on voting. In the 2019 House of Councillors election, online personality Yamada Tarō of the Liberal Democratic Party amassed more than 530,000 votes as a proportional representation candidate, and the Party to Protect the People from NHK also won a seat. These successes were certainly supported by the internet, but only through attracting a small percentage of voters, and there was no major influence on the election as a whole.

By comparison, in 2024 the strong showing by Ishimaru Shinji in the Tokyo gubernatorial election on July 7, the leap in support for the Democratic Party for the People in the House of Representatives election on October 27, and the reelection of Saitō Motohiko as governor of Hyōgo Prefecture on November 17 represented a sea change. These upheavals involved the activity of significant numbers of voters.

Ishimaru Shinji, formerly mayor of Akitakata, Hiroshima, high-fives supporters in Ginza, Tokyo, on June 30, 2024. (© Jiji)

In 2024, the internet extended its sway from its former niche impact to exert mass influence on the electorate. This was the result of a media shift away from traditional outlets like newspapers and television to social media, and a generational shift among voters.

Reaching the Tipping Point

An annual survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications shows that the amount of time people spend online has outstripped time spent watching television since 2021. Internet usage time is continuing to increase. In 2023, people from their teens to their fifties were online for longer than they watched live-broadcast television.

Meanwhile, past data for national elections demonstrates that people from their late forties to their seventies are more likely to vote than average. This means that in 2024, Japan saw the onset of a significant overlap between the people who spend more time online and those who are more likely to vote.

After this tipping point was reached, politicians emerged who were effective at conveying their beliefs to voters via social media and similar methods, rapidly expanding the influence of the online world. This made elections in 2024 fundamentally different from how they were before.

Looking back, the July 2024 gubernatorial election in Tokyo was not the starting point; this was, rather, the April by-election in Tokyo district 15. Alongside celebrities who ended up tussling for second place was Iiyama Akari of the Conservative Party of Japan. As the first campaign for the CPJ, it was expected to only win a small percentage of the vote. However, boosted by her YouTube popularity, Iiyama ended with 14.2% of the vote, just 3 percentage points behind the runner-up. This was an exceptional performance for a candidate who was seen as set to finish among the also-rans.

An online survey by my company, JX Press, asked voters about their favored media. They could select from a number of choices that they used to get information about politics and society. The survey found that while 25% of overall respondents spent considerable time watching YouTube, this rose to 59% among Iiyama’s supporters. Similarly, 52% of her supporters had used X (formerly Twitter) for a long time, compared with 28% of overall respondents, demonstrating how online influence contributed to her performance.

Online Power Bases

Internet-powered groundswells of support are having an increasing effect on gubernatorial races and national elections. In Hyōgo Prefecture, this led to Saitō Motohiko’s astonishing November 2024 comeback as governor after allegations of abuse of power led to a unanimous vote of no confidence from the prefectural assembly and his resignation earlier in the same year.

In Japan, it has been said that for politicians to win an election, they need three things: jiban (a local support group or other power base), kanban (name recognition or a well-known family or party), and kaban (the “bag” of money representing financial backing).

In the year 2024, the power base can be online. Once, politicians worked to build their real-world support through activities deeply rooted in local communities. Now however, particularly in urban areas, their voices will not reach voters unless they consolidate their online presence, including on social media and through the support of influencers.

What kind of people make up online political support groups? Analysis of this year’s elections revealed a fascinating picture. Rather than maintaining strong social ties in their local communities, they appear to spend longer communicating and gathering information across regional boundaries via the internet. Particularly in Tokyo, there were notably high percentages of people living alone or just with their spouses among those who voted for Ishimaru Shinji and the DPFP.

The differences in voting by area for Ishimaru and Renhō, who unexpectedly fell behind him to finish third in the gubernatorial election, seem to provide backing for this view of the situation. Ishimaru had relatively high percentages in the central municipalities of central Tokyo, such as Chiyoda, Chūō, Minato, Shibuya, and Shinagawa, while Renhō came closest to matching him in western Tokyo. In the central municipalities, many residents are not part of their local communities, as fewer people know their neighbors or join neighborhood associations.

The DPFP showed a similar pattern of winning backing in urban areas. In the Hyōgo gubernatorial contest, meanwhile, Saitō secured more than 50% of support only in Kobe’s central Chūō Ward.

A Strengthening Trend

If internet supporters tend to be those who live their lives online, spending little meaningful time as members of their local communities, they seem likely to grow as Japan’s population decreases and offline support groups diminish. The striking waves of online support in urban centers are highly likely to spill over into the rest of the country, after the media shift reaches these areas.

Parties like the LDP, Kōmeitō, and the Japanese Communist Party have cultivated support bases rooted in local communities. However, it may not be possible for them to maintain their strength using the same old methods. In 2024, online support bases have emerged to eclipse the importance of local ones, heralding the start of a new era of elections.

(Originally published in Japanese on December 6, 2024. Banner photo: Saitō Motohiko fixes his poster in place on October 31, 2024, at the start of his campaign to be reinstated as governor of Hyōgo Prefecture. © Jiji.)