Japan’s Options for Dealing with “Trump 2.0”

American Presidential Elections: Christmas “Gifts” You Can’t Return

Ultimately, Donald Trump’s reelection as president of the United States should not have been all that surprising. Boiled down to its simplest elements, there are three things that Americans ask themselves when choosing a president. First, do the candidates look like a strong leader? Second, are they engaging in a way that would make me want to have a beer with them? Third, are they likely to improve my livelihood in some way?

While Trump may not pass the second of these criteria, he seems to pass the first and third. During the electoral campaign he was particularly good at highlighting the third, especially the themes of inflation and illegal immigration. He could appeal to the electorate along the lines of “did we have such high inflation when I was president the first time? I also let very few illegal immigrants. Hasn’t this gone through the roof under Biden?”

Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, did not strike people as a strong leader, and there was uncertainty about whether she was engaging and personable. Harris was less disliked than Trump but the degree to which she was actively “liked” was also less than desired by her team. Finally, Harris could not escape being associated with the economic policies of the administration of President Joe Biden, which the American public perceived as not having helped improve their livelihoods.

Initially, I was not convinced that Trump would win. However, the survey data from battleground states that at one point looked to be swinging toward Harris started to change in Trump’s favor in the last 10 days before election day. Once I saw this, I started to believe that Trump was likely to prevail.

I have long said that the American presidential election is in some ways like receiving a Christmas present. As you start unwrapping the present, no matter what it turns out to be, you know you need to act as if it was something that you had wanted all along. We cannot be picky. Like such a gift, we just have to make the best of the situation and get along with the United States as best we can.

Keeping Japanese Eyes Clear

There are those who worry about the implications of the “Trump 2.0” administration for Japan’s diplomacy. However, Tokyo needs to adapt to whatever comes down the pipeline. Trump is a risk-taker and a man who likes to make deals. If we show weakness and panic, he may be tempted to take advantage. Just like a poker player, even if you get a bad hand, you need to remain calm and play it as well as you can. Japan’s leaders need to be able to confidently say, “I am doing exactly what I need to do. Do you have a problem with that?”

Former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō worked well with President Trump for three reasons: first, he successfully established a one-on-one relationship with Trump through golf and other activities; second, he created a map and repeatedly explained to Trump how Japanese companies were expanding into the United States to the point where this awareness became imprinted on Trump. Third, based on the passage of the 2015 peace and security legislation partially enabling Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense, Abe was able to point to Japan’s increased defense efforts within the alliance and somewhat neutralize Trump’s longtime complaint about Japan.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio continued to enhance Japan’s defense posture even after the end of the first Trump administration. He committed to doubling Japan’s defense spending by 2027 and to buy 400 Tomahawk cruise missile units from the United States to give Japan a counterattack capability. He also established a process where the Self-Defense Force is going to stand up a joint command, which will at the same time enable better emergency interoperability and coordination with the American military. Current Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru should inherit this approach. If Trump and others question whether Tokyo is “getting a free ride,” Ishiba must be able to point to concrete examples of Japan’s enhanced defense posture and contributions to the US-Japan alliance.

This approach should be pursued when it comes to economic matters as well. For example, a Japanese prime minister can point to the fact that Japanese manufacturers produce 2.8 million vehicles in the United States itself, almost double the 1.5 million vehicles that Japan exports to the country. Even if we include the 1.2 million Japanese vehicles manufactured in Mexico and sent to the US market, the United States produces as many Japanese vehicles as it imports. Certainly, how Trump’s trade policies and promised tariff hikes will impact production in Mexico could be an issue for Japanese automakers. This is where these manufacturers may have to shift gears and adapt.

Japan Should Trust Zelenskyy

How Trump’s reelection will impact the war in Ukraine is also a major topic of discussion. He has boldly stated that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, and he appears to be more favorable to Russian leader Vladimir Putin then he is toward incumbent President Biden. In such a case, he may make concessions to Putin and attempt to end the war by getting Ukraine to cede the Donbass region and other areas to Russia. Trump’s own vice president, JD Vance, has previously proposed such a plan. This would certainly be an all-around win for Russia.

However, it is ultimately President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine who will decide on the course of action. If the United States stops supporting Ukraine with military equipment and finance, other NATO countries will also likely scale back their support. Zelenskyy likely understands that at some point a compromise might be necessary and will not stubbornly resist and see his nation perish.

One possible way for Zelenskyy to save face would be to agree to a cease-fire, but not agree to formally cede the occupied territory. Ukraine would still maintain a claim over the territory and could open it up again in the future. It is unimaginable that Ukraine would simply hand over the territory to Russia. At the same time, Russia will probably assume that Ukraine has given up and will gladly accept the ceasefire. Thus, if President Zelenskyy decides to make a concession, Japan should support it.

Of course, supporting such a compromise may not necessarily be a good precedent for Japan to accept as it applies to the Northern Territories issue. It would be undesirable for the international community to allow Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, to wantonly violate Article 2 of the UN Charter, which asserts the principle of non-use of force, such as invading a neighboring country and essentially profiting from it. However, if President Zelenskyy himself decides that compromise is unavoidable, Japan will be in no position to say “no, try harder!” just because it has its own territorial dispute with Russia.

I am not saying that we should be groveling at the feet of the United States, or any other superpower, doing its bidding simply because it or says so. Whether it is cases like Myanmar or Iran, Japan has already demonstrated the ability to pursue a foreign policy different from that of the United States based on its own interests and principles. Japan has never been and is not at the mercy of the United States. Nevertheless, there is little to be achieved by stubbornly insisting that “we aren’t going to do what you say” in response to new developments.

Don’t Preach to President Trump

Britain, Germany, and Canada all failed in their dealings with Trump during his first term. British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at different times each publicly preached to President Trump about democracy and how “it is supposed to work.” Trump’s response was always along the lines of “What nerve they have! I am the president of the United States!”

Prime Minister Abe never tried to preach to Trump, though, because he knew it would not work. Japanese leaders will follow Abe’s approach. When thinking about how to deal with the United States, which democratically elected Trump, there is little point in lamenting it and overreacting as if we are already in trouble.

Thankfully for Japan, now Senator Bill Hagerty, who served as ambassador to Japan from 2017 to 2019, carries significant weight in the Republican Party. Before he became ambassador, he was the Trump campaign’s personnel director. During his time in Tokyo, he became a friend to Japan. There was no one like that in the first Trump administration to vouch for Japan. This alone represents a big difference. I think the Ishiba administration should proactively reach out to Hagerty, build on this relationship, and expand its network of contacts to influence the Trump administration.

(Article based on interview with Koga Kō of Nippon.com and originally published in Japanese. Banner photo: Supporters rejoice after Trump’s re-election as American president, near Detroit, Michigan. © David Guralnick/The Detroit News/Kyōdō.)