Ishiba Shigeru: A New Face at the Head of a Shifting LDP

A Long and Winding Road

In the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election on September 27, Ishiba Shigeru came out on top, winning the party’s top position and becoming prime minister of Japan. A surprising fact to note here is that Ishiba, along with Takaichi Sanae, who finished second in a closely fought contest, left the LDP behind in the 1990s to join the Shinshintō (New Frontier Party), an opposition group that formed part of the coalition government while the LDP found itself in the political wilderness for the first time since 1955.

It should be recognized that it has been far less unusual for politicians to move from one party to another since the 1994 introduction of a dual system of single-seat and proportional-representation electoral districts. That said, for two politicians who spent time outside the Liberal Democratic fold to be the finalists in an election to pick the leader of the party is a sure sign, I feel, that the party has changed. It may be that the membership as a whole has been pressured into the realization that it can no longer cling to the traditions of its past if that means casting aside valuable human resources.

In the early 1990s the LDP wrestled with the question of political reform, as a result of which numerous members left to form or join other forces in the Diet. Ozawa Ichirō, a proponent of a more robust political system with alternate powers wresting control from one another, split the party and took many with him, Ishiba being one of them. After Ishiba returned to the LDP fold, Prime Minister Koizumi Jun’ichirō (2001–6) elevated him to director general of the Defense Agency (which would later become the Ministry of Defense); this, among other positions, showed that he was back in the party’s good graces. He would go on to serve in posts including minister of defense, minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, and secretary general of the LDP.

Of course, this career arc has not been without internal opposition. Former Prime Minister Mori Yoshirō and his compatriots have worked to hamper Ishiba’s rise in the party, while even some of the younger members in his own generation have expressed disapproval at times. It is worth recalling 2012, when he ran for the party presidency for his second time (the first having been in 2008). In the first round of voting, on the strength of broad support from the nationwide party rank and file, Ishiba was ahead of Abe Shinzō. But in the second round, the heavier weight on Diet members’ votes gave the prize to Abe.

The Party Makes an Uncomfortable Choice?

There are complex factors at work within the Liberal Democratic Party when it comes to its members’ takes on its new leader. Ishiba cast this 2024 election as his fifth and “final battle” for leadership of the party. He has long been described in mocking terms as “a guy who has trouble making friends” within his organization—the sort of politician who, when helped out in a campaign, has trouble finding an appropriate phrase of gratitude, like “thanks for your help; let’s have dinner together soon.” It appeared as though he had few true comrades in his own party. The Suigetsukai, a faction he himself launched, ended up dissolving largely because of his own focus on touring Japan to connect with local supporters in each region rather than remaining in Tokyo to strengthen the group.

Ishiba himself clearly recognizes this shortcoming. In his final speech to the party membership before the second round of voting this time, he clearly noted “the times when I may have made people feel uncomfortable with me.” With this, he was clearly making his last-moment pitch to promise the party’s voters that he would value his ties with them going forward in exchange for being allowed to lead them. The applause he received for these comments was louder and longer than that Takaichi Sanae had enjoyed for her speech, making me think for the first time that Ishiba had a shot at overtaking her for the presidency.

In the first round of voting, with the nationwide party membership contributing a proportionally allotted 367 votes to match the 367 cast by the LDP members in the two houses of the Diet, Takaichi was the top finisher, earning 27 votes more than Ishiba—a gap of 26 among lawmakers and a single-vote lead among the rank and file. Prior to the election, the conventional wisdom said that Ishiba was likely to lead in the nationwide vote; as voting time drew near, though, more and more surveys identified growing support for Takaichi among the general party members and associates.

As one veteran party official told me: “During Abe Shinzō’s lengthy period in office, the share of party members and supporters identifying with his brand of politics gradually grew.” It is clear that Takaichi, whose policy stances align closely with Abe’s, was boosted by support from these people after he was felled by an assassin in 2022.

Having come out on top in the first round of voting, though, why was she unable to beat Ishiba in the final vote?

One answer lies in the prefectural makeup of the nationwide support for these two candidates. In the second round, nationwide votes from the first round were collated and awarded to the top vote-getter among the two finalists on a prefectural basis; Ishiba took 26 of these votes to Takaichi’s 21. Here the victor, himself hailing from the relatively rural Tottori, was successful particularly in lower-population prefectures, where his track record and knowledge as a minister in charge of regional economic revitalization gave her little room to catch up.

Among Diet members, meanwhile, in the final round Ishiba won 189 votes to Takaichi’s 173. In an environment where the once powerful LDP factions had been all but defanged, this lead tells the bulk of the story of how he was able to win.

As an unprecedented nine candidates vied for the party’s top spot, the contest gradually came into clearer focus as one among three leaders: Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi Shinjirō. Given this background, the Takaichi camp sketched out a clear path to victory: “If she can make it to the runoff round with Ishiba, she’ll have the backing of the former Abe faction members, most of whom remain critical of her opponent as a politician who stabbed Abe in the back during his time in office. Once Asō Tarō, known to be down on Ishiba, tells his followers to support Takaichi, we’ll see a landslide victory.”

Koizumi Boosted, Takaichi Busted?

For this formula to work, however, Takaichi would need a way to keep Koizumi Shinjirō, with his strong support among younger party members in the Diet, from advancing to the final round. As part of these efforts, the Takaichi camp engaged in a negative online campaign against the son of former Prime Minister Koizumi Jun’ichirō (2001–6), working to spread critical, and often anonymous, comments about him. Koizumi’s team caught on quickly, pushing out positive messages about their candidate. One result of all of this was a movement of many of these young Koizumi supporters from the first round of voting to Ishiba’s side once the final round got underway.

Koizumi, though, did himself few favors with his facile pronouncements before coming anywhere near the premiership that he would dissolve the Diet and call a snap election early on. His seeming belief that the policy debate during the presidential contest would be enough to make a solid appeal to the public in a general election soon afterward marked him as wet behind the ears, and perhaps not ready to handle Diet deliberations from the nation’s top office. In the end, all Takaichi’s machinations to prevent Koizumi Junior from spoiling her shot at the prize may have counted for little in comparison to the comments from his own father, who opined that the time was “not yet right” for him to lead the country.

On October 1 an extraordinary session of the Diet gets underway, with the first order of business to be the selection of Ishiba as the new prime minister. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, chose its own new leader in a contest just days before the LDP, on September 23, returning a “retired heavyweight champ”—former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko—to the ring.

The people of Japan are certainly looking forward to a meaningful battle on the policy front between serious political leaders. The security environment surrounding the country continues to deteriorate, leading to questions of how far defense spending needs to be extended; domestically, meanwhile, the shrinking and graying of the population proceeds apace, prompting worries about the sustainability of Japan’s pension, health and nursing care, child-rearing, and other social security systems. Underpinning all of these is the health of the economy, and with it the prospects for growth in people’s incomes. What can be done to structurally support all these complex factors? There is no end to the meaty topics for discussion by the nation’s new political leadership.

As Ishiba Shigeru forms his new cabinet, building it around his key theme of “protecting the people,” he will have to tackle a supplementary budget to get Ishikawa Prefecture’s Noto Peninsula back on its feet after torrential rainfall and flooding this summer on the heels of the January 1 earthquake that dealt a blow to the same area. All the while, he will be pressed to deal with the opposition in discussions on further revisions to the Political Funds Control Act as a means of showing that the LDP is dedicated to following the rules going forward.

Ishiba’s agenda also includes a snap House of Representatives election, already slated for late October this year, and a House of Councillors election next summer. One hopes the new prime minister, and all Japan’s politicians, are ready to show clear convictions and policy options as they court the precious votes of the electorate.

(Originally published in Japanese on September 27, 2024. Banner photo: Ishiba Shigeru thanks the party’s assembled members after winning the LDP presidency in Tokyo on September 27. © Jiji.)