Single Elderly to Be 20% of Japanese Households by 2050

Single-person households are projected to account for 44.3% of all households in Japan by 2050, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The institute updates its projections every five years based on national census data, and this latest analysis provides a forecast for the next 30 years. 

In 2020, the total number of households nationwide was 55,705,000, of which 21,151,000, or 38%, were single-person households. Single-person households accounted for over 40% in five prefectures: Hokkaidō (40.5%), Tokyo (50.2%), Kyoto (41.2%), Osaka (41.8%), and Fukuoka (40.7%).  

While the total number of households is projected to decrease to 52,607,000 by 2050, single-person households will increase to 23,301,000. This growth is projected to occur in both major urban areas and rural areas, and single-person households will account for over 40% in 27 prefectures—more than half of Japan’s 47.

In Japan’s hyper-aged society, an increase in single-person households signifies a growing number of elderly persons who live alone. By 2050, the number of single elderly households (those aged 65 and older) will rise to 10,839,000, reaching more than 20% of the total, an approximately 1.5-fold increase from 2020. Of these, 7,040,000 will be individuals aged 75 and older.

Japan’s second baby boom generation, born in the early 1970s as the children of the baby boomers born in the immediate postwar years, will have reached the age of 75 by 2050. Much of this generation entered the workforce after Japan’s bubble economy collapsed in the early 1990s, when companies were scaling back on hiring regular employees and increasing their reliance on nonregular workers. As a result, many faced job instability and low wages, which contributed to fewer people getting married and having children. They face a future of aging alone, without the support of family.

(Originally published in Japanese. Banner photo © Pixta.)